Should the Raiders switch to a 3-4.....

I Know... I Know... Al Davis has a heavy hand when it comes to defensive philosophy. He is unwavering in his belief that the Raiders are a team that should run a 4-3 defense using man coverage, ohh about 95% of the time, and relying primarily on the defensive line to generate a pass-rush. I SHOULD NOT EVEN ENTERTAIN THIS IDEA BECAUSE QUITE SIMPLY... IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN.

But just because Mr. Davis doesn't believe change is needed doesn't mean a switch in philosophy isn't needed. A couple years back, with the addition of Rob Ryan as DC, it was widely believed that the Raiders were going to make the switch to the 3-4- and they did make a half-assed attempt to do so. However, the timing wasn't right. We had just signed Warren Sapp, who clearly was not suited for the the 3-4. As well, we had a very explosive DE in Derrick Burgess who could generate the type of pressure off the edge to justify the Raiders being conservative, in regards to blitzes, and rely primarily on the DL to pressure the opposing QB. Now, it appears Burgess is on the decline and it is unclear if we have a DT who can adequately collapse the pocket and produce 6-10 sacks- Tommie Kelly I'm looking at you.

It is apparent in the NFL today that 3-4 defenses are king; as most of the top defenses utilize this defense. As well, the last couple drafts have been loaded with undersized DE prospects whose skills are most suited to be used as a 3-4 rush LB; this upcoming draft may be one of the strongest in years in that regard. Needless to say, the Raiders might be smart to capitalize on the current strengths of the draft and find more creative ways to create pressure off the edge then pinning their hopes on aging traditional DE's and possibly finding a FA gem i.e. Burgess a couple years back.

Do the Raiders possess the current personel to make a seamless transition to the 3-4? The answer is probably not (then again their defensive play suggests they don't have the personnel to play the 4-3 either). Using the current personnel, we would have Kelly and Jay Richardson as the 3-4 DE's, Sands as the NT, Morrison as one of the ILB's, Howard as the strongside OLB, and use a combination of Burgess, Trevor Scott (5 sacks as a rookie), and Kalimba Edwards, as the weakside rush OLB. Our biggest areas to upgrade would be NT, a second ILB, and another Rush OLB.

After examining what is available through the draft and FA, it looks as if it would be relatively easy to fill out the LB needs, both inside and outside. In regards to ILB, the raiders could draft USC ILB Rey Maualuga in the first round or sign a ILB through FA, such as Channing Crowder or Bart Scott. To acquire another rush LB, the raiders could pick from a number of talented undersized converted DE's, throughout the first 3 rounds. Or, if they can find away to pony up the money, make a big splash by signing a sack artist such as Terrell Suggs. Filling the NT position might be more complicated. If the Raiders were to have a shot at drafting fast rising BC DT prospect B.J. Raji; that would quickly solve that problem. However, some draft prognosticators, including myself, have him going as high as number 4 to the seahawks or 5 to the Browns. After Raji, the pickings are slim in the draft and would possibly require the Raiders to reach for Raji's college teammate, Ron Brace, in the second round. Through FA, pickings are even slimmer, as there are not many massive NT's- with the exception of Hayensworth- who could adequately fill the void. Still, a good organization can adapt to the current environment and capitalize on the strengths of the draft and FA to put together the best defense.

As it stands right now, if the Raiders were to stay with their basic 4-3 defense, they need a DE, who is equally adept at rushing the passer and stopping the run; a run-stuffing DT; and a run stuffing MLB, to allow Morrison to move over to strongside LB. I will lay out the options the raiders would have at upgrading, through the draft and FA, in both a 4-3 and a 3-4.

4-3 Defense:

DE: Derrick Burgess (on his last legs)
DT: Tommie Kelly (might be better as a 3-4 DE)
DT: Terdell Sands (Raiders need a serious upgrade)
DE: Kalimba Edwards, Jay Richarson, Trevor Scott (These three collectively had decent production but it is clear we need another top DE)

OLB: Thomas Howard (he is a stud and we need to more effectively utilize him as a pass-rusher)
MLB: Kirk Morrison (Another stud, but if we stay in a 4-3, it would be wise to move him to the strongside)
OLB: Ricky Brown, Jon Alston (we need a serious upgrade)

Off-season upgrade options:
DE:
Draft- Brian Orakpo (rd. 1), Aaron Maybin (rd.1), Michael Johnson (rd. 2 if available) Paul Kruger (rd. 2), Robert Ayers (rd. 2 reach).
FA- Julius Peppers & Terrell Suggs (doubt we have money or those players have the interest), and nothing else terribly appealing.

DT:
Draft- B.J. Raji (rd. 1), Peria Jerry (rd. 2), Sen'Derrick Marks (rd.2), Ron Brace (rd. 2 reach), Ziggy Hood (rd. 3), Fili Moala (rd. 3).
FA- Rocky Bernard (could see this happening given that John Marshall is now our DC), Jovan Haye, Kedric Golston, Colin Cole, Shaun Cody, Tank Johnson.

MLB:
Draft- Rey Maualuga, James Lauriniatis (rd. 2 if he were to slip)
FA- Channing Crowder, Bart Scott, Jonathan Vilma, Mike Peterson


3-4 Defense:

DE: Tommie Kelly (played very well in this role a couple years ago)
DT: Terdell Sands ( Need to upgrade whether we play a 4-3 or 3-4)
DE: Jay Richardson (at 6'6 287 frame is much more suited for 3-4 DE role)

Offseason upgrade options:
OLB: Derrick Burgess, Trevor Sott (might be an intriquing player if used in this role), Kalimba Edwards
ILB- Kirk Morrison
ILB- Ricky Brown (need a serious upgrade regardless of 4-3 or 3-4 alignment)
OLB- Thomas Howard (would utilize pass-rushing skills in addition to his coverage skills)

DE: Richardson and Kelly would be more than adequete as the 3-4 DE's however their are intriguing options through the Draft and FA.
Draft- Tyson Jackson (rd. 2), Robert Ayers (rd. 2), Jarrod Gilbert (rd. 3), or convert smaller DT's Marks, Hood, Moala (available rds. 2 & 3)
FA- Igor Olshansky, Chris Canty, Antonio Smith, Michael Montgomery.

DT:
Draft- B.J. Raji (rd. 1), Ron Brace (rd. 2 less of a reach to fill as NT).
FA- Tank Johnson, Colin Cole, Grady Jackson, Gabe Watson (RFA)

OLB/ Converted DE:
Draft- Aaron Curry, Brian Orakpo, Everette Brown, Aaron Maybin (rd. 1); Larry English, Brian Cushing (if slips), Clay Matthews, Clint Sintim, Connor Barwin (rd. 2) Cody Brown (rd. 3) and a handful of potential steals in later rounds i.e. (Brandon Williams, Phillip Hunt)
FA- Terrell Suggs, Karlos Dansby

MLB:
Draft- Rey Maualuga, Aaron Curry (rd. 1); James Lauriniatis (rd. if slips)
FA- Channing Crowder, Bart Scott, Jonathan Vilma, Mike Peterson, Keith Brooking, Eric Barton

While there are multiple options at multiple positions, it is important to understand that the raiders are probably not going to have the type of financial flexibility to fill their needs through FA. As a result, filling needs through the draft is necessary. Looking at the draft, the best position to find cheap players, who will provide the same impact as high priced FA's, are OLB's in the form of converted DE's. That would allow the raiders to use their available capital to invest in defensive FA's who could stop the run (I really want the raiders to sign Crowder). So you tell me... is my argument justified?